Well, it's been one hell of a week. I finally finished up a paper I've been slaving on and got it out. Of course as soon as I started working on it the weather turned nice, which had me splitting my time between writing and trying to get some spring prepping done. I'd like to say I put more effort into the spring prepping but... Oh well. I did however manage to get a bull calf slaughtered. He should be gracing my freezer and dinner plate before spring.
So I'm thinking about gold again. I picked up a pretty good idea from a fella over at HT, one that I was ashamed of myself for not thinking up first. He's running a few ads on sites like Craigslist and such buying scrap gold. He pays more than the local gold buying outfits but still well under spot. He was able to pay nearly double that the local scrap buyers are paying which is still half of the spot price! Genius right? I've been doing this with copper and aluminum for some time now which is why I boggles my mind why I didn't think to try the same with gold and silver.
I've only been buying PMs this way for about a week now but it's going pretty well. I've also managed to pick up a few stones along the way, although I know very little about them yet. It's entirely possible I've over payed for them. I'm going to need to study a bit more on them and buy a loop I suppose. All the same, it's pretty interesting and I thought it was worth passing this one on.
I will say that you can not expect to purchase all this scrap and work out any kind of deal with your local PM dealer. It's pretty obvious why right?
I mentioned above I've been doing this same thing with copper and aluminum. With all the things I have to do I really don't have the time or inclination to run around collecting scrap metals from the trash or whatever. What I did to get my scrap collection growing was place an ad on Craigslist saying I would buy this stuff for a little over the local yards prices. I was very careful in who I selected to purchase from mind you, and I told the few folks I decided to work with exactly what I wanted .
I was sure that the folks I dealt with were willing to show me some ID right form the start. I have a photo copy on file of those few folks, just like the local scrap yard. I'm not trying to buy stolen metals after all. I was also careful to get a good look at the few folks I selected. I was looking for people that weren't high on meth of course. While I'm not worried about what the guys look like, I'm certainly not interested in dealing with a bunch of tweekers. Do your homework if you use this method of collecting metal! Like any other dealings you want to know the other guy is going to be someone worth doing business with.
Some of the benefits of this arrangement:
1. I set a minimum amount I'm willing to purchase. Right now I won't get a call unless the guys have 200lbs or more of copper and/or aluminum.
2. I don't have to clean the scrap. Because I'm paying more than the local yard I get better quality stuff. If there are decent lengths of pipe or something I'd prefer in tact, that's what I get. The rest of the stuff is sorted and crushed to my specs. This saves me a lot of time and makes storage a breeze.
3. I'm always learning something interesting. Regardless of how these guys might look to the rest of the world, I know they are decent guys. They have a lot of interesting knowledge to share and I'm ready and willing to soak it all in.
4. I get to promote Ron Paul. Yeah, I said it, so what? These guys often didn't vote as they are kinda free minded. Talking to them about politics often leads me to Ron Paul, whose ideas they tend to like. I'll take any win I can.
5. I've met some real stand up guys. My wife got a flat on her way home one evening and didn't have a spare. (She'd gotten a flat previously, changed the tire and never mentioned it... arg) Two of the guys I deal with saw recognized the car and swung back to help. When she told them about not having a spare, and that I was coming to get her one of them waited with her while the other ran back for a trailer. By the time I arrived they had her car loaded up on the trailer and were waiting on me so they could decide if they should tow it to my house or to the tire place. For this I had to force $100 on them, as they insisted good deeds are free and kindness comes back in other ways.
I feel I should add that this arrangement works well for me largely because I don't have the metal delivered to my home. I have an off site place to have metal delivered and weighed. I'll transfer it to my own trailer and bring it home after. While I don't do business with people I think might steal from me, and while many of these guys are really nice folks; I'm not that trusting to show them my home either. Just sayin.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Oil and Iran, follow up post
I realized I needed a follow up to this post after talking about this on various forums and chatting with some friends. There is some information I've forgotten to add which would paint a more complete picture, and maybe give people a better idea why I'm thinking like this. Also, I should mention I'm not saying this is how it's going to happen but that it's one of the overlooked possibilities.
I too am sure oil is going up in the short term. My problem is I don't think it is staying there. A spike in oil will cripple the US economy right now and cut demand too hard. This would cripple the global economy and sink Europe for sure. Demand would evaporate overnight and those long oil bets would get their throats slit. That trade is going to be too hard to keep up with for me to feel good about it.
Something I believe too many folks are overlooking is that Iran is opening it's oil bourse on 3/20 this year. They'll be trading their oil on an open market, without US traders (read speculators), with limited competition, for non dollars. With China and India being their biggest customers I really can see them bidding the price of Iranian oil down simply due to lack of volume in that market.
There are three ways I can see that playing out excluding US intervention.
1. China and maybe India get discounted oil from Iran. While this will most likely lower the price of oil for everyone, it won't be as much a discount for the world as it is for China. This is bad for the dollar and China gets an energy edge on us. While oil is lower for others, it rises or remains flat in the US. Interest rates have to rise to cover the lack of T-Bill buyers, crapping all over the fake recovery we have going in the US.
2. China and India and a few other players bid Iranian oil up to current market price. This creates a lower demand for the dollar and increases the price of oil for US customers. Interest rates have to rise to cover the lack of T-Bill buyers, crapping all over the fake recovery we have going in the US.
3. There is very little interest in the oil bourse and not much happens because of it. Though, if the interest in Iraq and Libya's oil schemes is any indication this is unlikely to happen.
With US intervention anything is possible. Anything from the above still happens to WWIII.
I too am sure oil is going up in the short term. My problem is I don't think it is staying there. A spike in oil will cripple the US economy right now and cut demand too hard. This would cripple the global economy and sink Europe for sure. Demand would evaporate overnight and those long oil bets would get their throats slit. That trade is going to be too hard to keep up with for me to feel good about it.
Something I believe too many folks are overlooking is that Iran is opening it's oil bourse on 3/20 this year. They'll be trading their oil on an open market, without US traders (read speculators), with limited competition, for non dollars. With China and India being their biggest customers I really can see them bidding the price of Iranian oil down simply due to lack of volume in that market.
There are three ways I can see that playing out excluding US intervention.
1. China and maybe India get discounted oil from Iran. While this will most likely lower the price of oil for everyone, it won't be as much a discount for the world as it is for China. This is bad for the dollar and China gets an energy edge on us. While oil is lower for others, it rises or remains flat in the US. Interest rates have to rise to cover the lack of T-Bill buyers, crapping all over the fake recovery we have going in the US.
2. China and India and a few other players bid Iranian oil up to current market price. This creates a lower demand for the dollar and increases the price of oil for US customers. Interest rates have to rise to cover the lack of T-Bill buyers, crapping all over the fake recovery we have going in the US.
3. There is very little interest in the oil bourse and not much happens because of it. Though, if the interest in Iraq and Libya's oil schemes is any indication this is unlikely to happen.
With US intervention anything is possible. Anything from the above still happens to WWIII.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Oil, an alternative theory on Iran
I've been talking to a lot of friends about the up coming war with Iran and how to play it. Most folks seem to agree that oil is the way to win. Go long oil and wait for the bombs to drop, the straight to close, speculators to run amok, and the military machine to start gulping down fuel. This is a possible play and it seems to make good sense, but I hesitate to buy into anything EVERYONE is already sure of. Somehow running with the herd never works out for me. With that in mind I've been looking for an alternative scenario.
First thing we need to ask ourselves is why would oil prices go up? Iran's oil isn't getting to the US or Europe right now, so we won't be affected by that. Why would we stop buying Iranian oil in advance of a war with Iran? Seems like it might have been to give our industries (mostly Europe's) time to ween themselves from it. Assuming Iranian oil isn't reaching western shores today but is still getting to someone we can also assume it would have limited impact on the price of oil. Unless we destroy the oil fields, which I doubt we would. I also doubt the Chinese would stand for it.
Who would Iran export oil to if they were being bombed? Well China of course. But the Chinese are pretty slick and aren't going to pay full value if they don't have to. They certainly aren't going to send their tankers to a war zone right? Hell, they aren't even sending enough tankers to Iran today. The question is, why not?
Iran bargains:
I'd speculate they know the Iranians are in a tough spot and want to bargain themselves a little discount. I would think 20% should be enough to get those tankers out of other ports and into Iranian ports. Even if there isn't an attack on Iran, more likely really, the Chinese bargaining for a better deal with Iran would lower the price of oil globally. This would also accomplish another of China's goals, hitting the dollar in the balls.
If the price of oil dropped over night most of the nations in the world would be a lot better off. The US and Canada however would not. If oil took a dive as such the dollar would also take a beating. The need for US dollars around the world would decline in tandem. This would have a major ripple effect of course, from increased food prices to giving us very little of those oil savings. Lower value dollar means less oil per dollar. The world gets a 5% fuel price reduction, the US gets maybe, MAYBE, a .5% reduction.
The other effect would be the US government would no longer be able to issue TBills for a real negative return as we have been. That 1 trillion a year we borrow at almost no cost, POOF! Dried up.
If the Iranians can manage to make such a deal with China it's very unlikely the Chinese would allow the US to bomb Iran. If we were getting a 20% discount over spot I'm pretty sure we'd protect that deal with gusto. If this happens it puts a real kink in US plans and hurts the dollar in a serious way. It would also wipe out a lot of the speculators.
All it requires is China and Iran to agree to an oil discount. Easy to see the Chinese accepting it, but what about the Persians? I don't know if this kind of thing is in the works or if I'm the only person to have thought of it so far. But it does present some interesting possibilities.
Follow Up posted here.
First thing we need to ask ourselves is why would oil prices go up? Iran's oil isn't getting to the US or Europe right now, so we won't be affected by that. Why would we stop buying Iranian oil in advance of a war with Iran? Seems like it might have been to give our industries (mostly Europe's) time to ween themselves from it. Assuming Iranian oil isn't reaching western shores today but is still getting to someone we can also assume it would have limited impact on the price of oil. Unless we destroy the oil fields, which I doubt we would. I also doubt the Chinese would stand for it.
Who would Iran export oil to if they were being bombed? Well China of course. But the Chinese are pretty slick and aren't going to pay full value if they don't have to. They certainly aren't going to send their tankers to a war zone right? Hell, they aren't even sending enough tankers to Iran today. The question is, why not?
Iran bargains:
I'd speculate they know the Iranians are in a tough spot and want to bargain themselves a little discount. I would think 20% should be enough to get those tankers out of other ports and into Iranian ports. Even if there isn't an attack on Iran, more likely really, the Chinese bargaining for a better deal with Iran would lower the price of oil globally. This would also accomplish another of China's goals, hitting the dollar in the balls.
If the price of oil dropped over night most of the nations in the world would be a lot better off. The US and Canada however would not. If oil took a dive as such the dollar would also take a beating. The need for US dollars around the world would decline in tandem. This would have a major ripple effect of course, from increased food prices to giving us very little of those oil savings. Lower value dollar means less oil per dollar. The world gets a 5% fuel price reduction, the US gets maybe, MAYBE, a .5% reduction.
The other effect would be the US government would no longer be able to issue TBills for a real negative return as we have been. That 1 trillion a year we borrow at almost no cost, POOF! Dried up.
If the Iranians can manage to make such a deal with China it's very unlikely the Chinese would allow the US to bomb Iran. If we were getting a 20% discount over spot I'm pretty sure we'd protect that deal with gusto. If this happens it puts a real kink in US plans and hurts the dollar in a serious way. It would also wipe out a lot of the speculators.
All it requires is China and Iran to agree to an oil discount. Easy to see the Chinese accepting it, but what about the Persians? I don't know if this kind of thing is in the works or if I'm the only person to have thought of it so far. But it does present some interesting possibilities.
Follow Up posted here.
Holiday Drive By
Well, with the holiday weekend I found myself twice as busy as a normal weekend. Funny how that works isn't it? I also found myself feeling guilty for not having posted here. It felt like I was letting my few readers down, sorry. That is why I was hesitant to start a blog though, I didn't want another obligation. I have to tell myself that this is just entertainment for you and I, and it's ok to skip it once in awhile if I have nothing to say or no time to say it.
It's ok to miss a post, no one will die. It's ok to miss a post, no one will die. It's ok to miss a post, no one will die.
So the DOW broke 13,000 today. It did so while I was sleeping in and recovering form my long weekend. My response once I noticed was, well, meh. A quick check shows it floated past 13k with vapor think volume meaning to me, it didn't really break 13k so much as drift passed it. As I type this it's at 12,991.16 with a fair chance of crossing 13k again.
So many of the talking heads are trumpeting the great success, the wonderful moment. I smell a trap, but I've been out of the market for the most part since November-ish so I'm not too concerned. I do wish I could give more insight though. Being as I've been sitting on the sidelines for so long I'm just not up to date on the overall market. For my part I'm paying much closer attention to a very few things to see how 2012 is going to go.
1. Of course I'm following the Iran/US standoff with great interest. This is above all else the most important thing going right now. A war with Iran will chew up a lot of US treasure, cost more young people their lives, and run the price of oil up to insane levels... again. Most of you know I believe this standoff has nothing to do with nukes and everything to do with the dollar. We're out to defend dollar hegemony and Iran is the latest to try and dethrone us. If we screw this up... It's just not good is all. I could write a huge post about this issue as well and still not cover everything.
2. The Weather. The last few years have been rough for parts of the Mid West. This has affected everything from corn and wheat to cattle. If the weather starts to turn around I believe we'll see an increase in the price of beef as ranchers start to rebuild herds. Beef prices have been held back as these guys sold off even some of their best cows because they couldn't feed them.
Corn, Wheat, and Hay have all been climbing in price. If the weather stays sour it will only make things worse. This will of course drive up the price of food for everyone putting a further crimp in the overall economy. People are strained to breaking already, add higher food costs and it's going to hurt all sectors as folks make cuts to afford to eat.
This all depends on Iran as well of course. Even if the weather is perfect everywhere in the country but oil spikes, well, you can see how that's a problem. The bigger concern for me is if the Iran situation boils over AND the weather is bad. That leaves us all kinda gimpy.
3. Timberland. I've been watching the price of timberland for awhile now and it's been very interesting to me. While we saw some timberland trading hands through the worst of the depression (yeah, I do believe it was/is a depression. Call me crazy) prices haven't declined too badly. One of the reasons for this is because much of that land is held, free and clear, by some very large companies like Weyerhaeuser and PCL.
PCL holds pure timberland. The company doesn't MAKE anything instead focusing on tree farming. This to me is a pretty good play, holding timberland. It's a lot like farming except you can decide not to harvest a crop in a bad market. Can't do that with corn or beef really. The catch is taxes and the mortgage. No matter what you still have to pay your property tax and the note on the land. If, like PCL, you own the vast majority of your land outright you have a serious cushion in bad times.
Which brings us to why I'm paying so much attention to it. If a company like Plum Creek gets to the point that they need to start selling land to cover costs I'm going to get real nervous. When I start to notice the price of timberland overall declining it's bad.
4. Gold and Silver. The relation of gold to the dollar is a little looser than it used to be but it still gives us a little idea of how the big guys view the economy. It also gives us a gauge on how bad the little guy is getting shafted.
5. The DOW. While the DOW isn't a good gauge of the overall US economy to me, it is a good gauge of dollar strength. When the DOW is going up the dollar is likely going down. If the DOW fires it's way up, I suspect I'm going to see the dollar drop 2 or 3 times as much percentage wise. If the dollar moves first...well I think you get the idea.
So there you have it. My watch list and a quick post to satisfy my need to perform. Now I'm off to feed some cows, work some soil, and get some seeds started.
It's ok to miss a post, no one will die. It's ok to miss a post, no one will die. It's ok to miss a post, no one will die.
So the DOW broke 13,000 today. It did so while I was sleeping in and recovering form my long weekend. My response once I noticed was, well, meh. A quick check shows it floated past 13k with vapor think volume meaning to me, it didn't really break 13k so much as drift passed it. As I type this it's at 12,991.16 with a fair chance of crossing 13k again.
So many of the talking heads are trumpeting the great success, the wonderful moment. I smell a trap, but I've been out of the market for the most part since November-ish so I'm not too concerned. I do wish I could give more insight though. Being as I've been sitting on the sidelines for so long I'm just not up to date on the overall market. For my part I'm paying much closer attention to a very few things to see how 2012 is going to go.
1. Of course I'm following the Iran/US standoff with great interest. This is above all else the most important thing going right now. A war with Iran will chew up a lot of US treasure, cost more young people their lives, and run the price of oil up to insane levels... again. Most of you know I believe this standoff has nothing to do with nukes and everything to do with the dollar. We're out to defend dollar hegemony and Iran is the latest to try and dethrone us. If we screw this up... It's just not good is all. I could write a huge post about this issue as well and still not cover everything.
2. The Weather. The last few years have been rough for parts of the Mid West. This has affected everything from corn and wheat to cattle. If the weather starts to turn around I believe we'll see an increase in the price of beef as ranchers start to rebuild herds. Beef prices have been held back as these guys sold off even some of their best cows because they couldn't feed them.
Corn, Wheat, and Hay have all been climbing in price. If the weather stays sour it will only make things worse. This will of course drive up the price of food for everyone putting a further crimp in the overall economy. People are strained to breaking already, add higher food costs and it's going to hurt all sectors as folks make cuts to afford to eat.
This all depends on Iran as well of course. Even if the weather is perfect everywhere in the country but oil spikes, well, you can see how that's a problem. The bigger concern for me is if the Iran situation boils over AND the weather is bad. That leaves us all kinda gimpy.
3. Timberland. I've been watching the price of timberland for awhile now and it's been very interesting to me. While we saw some timberland trading hands through the worst of the depression (yeah, I do believe it was/is a depression. Call me crazy) prices haven't declined too badly. One of the reasons for this is because much of that land is held, free and clear, by some very large companies like Weyerhaeuser and PCL.
PCL holds pure timberland. The company doesn't MAKE anything instead focusing on tree farming. This to me is a pretty good play, holding timberland. It's a lot like farming except you can decide not to harvest a crop in a bad market. Can't do that with corn or beef really. The catch is taxes and the mortgage. No matter what you still have to pay your property tax and the note on the land. If, like PCL, you own the vast majority of your land outright you have a serious cushion in bad times.
Which brings us to why I'm paying so much attention to it. If a company like Plum Creek gets to the point that they need to start selling land to cover costs I'm going to get real nervous. When I start to notice the price of timberland overall declining it's bad.
4. Gold and Silver. The relation of gold to the dollar is a little looser than it used to be but it still gives us a little idea of how the big guys view the economy. It also gives us a gauge on how bad the little guy is getting shafted.
5. The DOW. While the DOW isn't a good gauge of the overall US economy to me, it is a good gauge of dollar strength. When the DOW is going up the dollar is likely going down. If the DOW fires it's way up, I suspect I'm going to see the dollar drop 2 or 3 times as much percentage wise. If the dollar moves first...well I think you get the idea.
So there you have it. My watch list and a quick post to satisfy my need to perform. Now I'm off to feed some cows, work some soil, and get some seeds started.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Guest Post: Machinists Guide to Tool Repair
Machinist from Cheap Homesteading wrote this up for me. I wanted to do something on ways to save money on tools and possibly make few bucks on the side. Thing is this isn't my field of expertise, so I went to the best. You can find a copy of this post here,if you are a member of Cheap Homesteading. If you have any questions or comments it might be worth it to sign up. And of course, many thanks to you Machinist!
Sharpening can easily be done with the tool held in the vise for safety, then use the angle grinder to LIGHTLY grind just enough to get a sharp edge. Duplicate the shape and angle of the original edge. Wear gloves and safety glasses and a face shield to keep grit and metal dust out of your eyes. Make sure that grinding wheel is stopped before you lay down the grinder, too. A light touch with a file on the the result will get rid of burrs and "wire edges", leaving a dead sharp tool. Be careful with it, because it is now a lot sharper than what you get at the store on a new one!!.
A collection of garden rakes, hoes, axe, shovels, post hole diggers (handles on them are bolted on--dead easy), digging fork, spade, etc., could cost you hundreds of $$ new, but you should be able to fix up old ones for a quarter of that. A few extras won't hurt to have around, and you could possibly sell the extras to pay for those you keep.
Garden and homestead tools can run into a lot of money if you run down to the store and buy a big selection, but it doesn't have to be that way. Most of the common ones can be found at junkyards, steel scrapyards, flea markets, yard sales, and in the alleys on trash pickup day, being thrown away. Whatever you can find by such means always needs some TLC to get them into useful shape, but it is fairly easy to do and saves a lot of money. You don't make big wages per hour doing this, but it is tax free gain, which adds 30% or so.
Refurbishing simple tools is not rocket science. The task falls into a few simple categories:
-Replacing handles
-Removing rust
-Straightening
-Painting
-Sharpening
To do these things you need a solid vise that is well anchored on a bench, a small (4" or 4 1/2") right angle grinder with both grinding wheels and a cup shaped wire brush, a hammer, a couple files and maybe an electric drill and a couple bits (Harbor Freight has all of this so far), some spray paint and a small can of Linseed Oil for making old handles waterproof (Wal Mart has these in the paint department).
Long handled tools like rakes, shovels, and hoes commonly need a new handle, as do hammers, axes and splitting mauls. Handles can be bought new, or made if you are a woodworker, but we will assume that you buy them. Removing old handles from hoes, rakes, and digging forks is simply a matter of holding either the tool or the handle in a vise and driving the old handle off with a punch or cold chisel. Common sense goes a long way here. These handles are simply held on by friction, having the tool and handle force-fitted together, so the old ones take some effort to remove. Be careful and wear safety gear to protect eyes and hands especially.
When the old handle has been removed, FIRMLY clamp the metal tool in the vise and go to work with the wire brush on the angle grinder to remove every last vestige of rust. Take your time and watch that you reposition the tool for safely doing the work. The brush can get hooked on the tool and grab, yanking the grinder away from you, so THINK about this, and wear heavy leather gloves and a face shield against flying wires from the brush. It sounds worse than it is. Make sure there is air moving to keep you from breathing the dust as you work. I do these things in batches of several items to save time.
After you have the tools cleaned, lay them on a suitable piece of cardboard or paper and spray paint to suit yourself. Put on at least 3 coats to get it thick enough to last. (My daughter paints her tools PINK, and has NEVER had one stolen!) Let dry till the next day, so the paint is thoroughly hardened.
When you have several tools painted and ready for new handles, go shopping for handles. Many flea markets have unfinished (no varnish) handles for sale cheap, and can save you a lot. Worst case, spring for new ones at the best price you can find from a hardware outlet. If the original tool had a metal ferrule on the end, like some most hoes and rakes, save the old one until you get a replacement handle, in case the new handle doesn't have one, but most do. If you buy a handle unfinished, sand it until smooth enough to suit you, and wipe on a coat of linseed oil with a piece of paper towel and let dry overnight. Do it again the next day and let dry for a couple days to harden well. Use a piece of steel wool, (or a dead soap pad) to rub the dry handle until it is slick and wipe off the dust. It is ready to install.
Installing a handle is the reverse of removing one. Rakes, hoes and digging forks want the tool held in the vise while your drive the handle onto the tool. The hole in the handle should be JUST large enough to allow the tool tang to start into it, but require driving the rest of the way for a firm fit. A bit of lard or shortening on the tool tang helps this and prevents rust. Drive the handle using a piece of hard wood to tap with until it is well started, then lay the wood against the handle and use a hammer to finish up as it gets tighter. The wood prevents damage to the handle from direct hammer blows.
Hammers, axes, and splitting mauls have handles inserted into a hole in the tool head that is tapered on both the entrance and exit sides, with wood and steel wedges on the end to spread the wood to fill that taper, preventing it from coming off. That means you will have to drill out the old handle part and punch out the remains. New handles comes with wedges (assure that they DO), so saving the old ones isn't necessary. Use a wood rasp, or power sander if you have one to fit the new handle to the tool, allowing just enough to let it go together by driving. This involves test fitting several times, remove some wood, and try again until it just goes in tight with a bit sticking through the other side. (It wants to be smaller on the end so it will wedge tightly in the hole.) Then, drive in the wood wedge until it won't go any more (they usually break off), and use a hacksaw to saw off the protruding wood flush with the tool. Now, drive in the steel wedge at 90 degrees (crosswise) to the wood wedge and you are finished.
Refurbishing simple tools is not rocket science. The task falls into a few simple categories:
-Replacing handles
-Removing rust
-Straightening
-Painting
-Sharpening
To do these things you need a solid vise that is well anchored on a bench, a small (4" or 4 1/2") right angle grinder with both grinding wheels and a cup shaped wire brush, a hammer, a couple files and maybe an electric drill and a couple bits (Harbor Freight has all of this so far), some spray paint and a small can of Linseed Oil for making old handles waterproof (Wal Mart has these in the paint department).
Long handled tools like rakes, shovels, and hoes commonly need a new handle, as do hammers, axes and splitting mauls. Handles can be bought new, or made if you are a woodworker, but we will assume that you buy them. Removing old handles from hoes, rakes, and digging forks is simply a matter of holding either the tool or the handle in a vise and driving the old handle off with a punch or cold chisel. Common sense goes a long way here. These handles are simply held on by friction, having the tool and handle force-fitted together, so the old ones take some effort to remove. Be careful and wear safety gear to protect eyes and hands especially.
When the old handle has been removed, FIRMLY clamp the metal tool in the vise and go to work with the wire brush on the angle grinder to remove every last vestige of rust. Take your time and watch that you reposition the tool for safely doing the work. The brush can get hooked on the tool and grab, yanking the grinder away from you, so THINK about this, and wear heavy leather gloves and a face shield against flying wires from the brush. It sounds worse than it is. Make sure there is air moving to keep you from breathing the dust as you work. I do these things in batches of several items to save time.
After you have the tools cleaned, lay them on a suitable piece of cardboard or paper and spray paint to suit yourself. Put on at least 3 coats to get it thick enough to last. (My daughter paints her tools PINK, and has NEVER had one stolen!) Let dry till the next day, so the paint is thoroughly hardened.
When you have several tools painted and ready for new handles, go shopping for handles. Many flea markets have unfinished (no varnish) handles for sale cheap, and can save you a lot. Worst case, spring for new ones at the best price you can find from a hardware outlet. If the original tool had a metal ferrule on the end, like some most hoes and rakes, save the old one until you get a replacement handle, in case the new handle doesn't have one, but most do. If you buy a handle unfinished, sand it until smooth enough to suit you, and wipe on a coat of linseed oil with a piece of paper towel and let dry overnight. Do it again the next day and let dry for a couple days to harden well. Use a piece of steel wool, (or a dead soap pad) to rub the dry handle until it is slick and wipe off the dust. It is ready to install.
Installing a handle is the reverse of removing one. Rakes, hoes and digging forks want the tool held in the vise while your drive the handle onto the tool. The hole in the handle should be JUST large enough to allow the tool tang to start into it, but require driving the rest of the way for a firm fit. A bit of lard or shortening on the tool tang helps this and prevents rust. Drive the handle using a piece of hard wood to tap with until it is well started, then lay the wood against the handle and use a hammer to finish up as it gets tighter. The wood prevents damage to the handle from direct hammer blows.
Hammers, axes, and splitting mauls have handles inserted into a hole in the tool head that is tapered on both the entrance and exit sides, with wood and steel wedges on the end to spread the wood to fill that taper, preventing it from coming off. That means you will have to drill out the old handle part and punch out the remains. New handles comes with wedges (assure that they DO), so saving the old ones isn't necessary. Use a wood rasp, or power sander if you have one to fit the new handle to the tool, allowing just enough to let it go together by driving. This involves test fitting several times, remove some wood, and try again until it just goes in tight with a bit sticking through the other side. (It wants to be smaller on the end so it will wedge tightly in the hole.) Then, drive in the wood wedge until it won't go any more (they usually break off), and use a hacksaw to saw off the protruding wood flush with the tool. Now, drive in the steel wedge at 90 degrees (crosswise) to the wood wedge and you are finished.
A collection of garden rakes, hoes, axe, shovels, post hole diggers (handles on them are bolted on--dead easy), digging fork, spade, etc., could cost you hundreds of $$ new, but you should be able to fix up old ones for a quarter of that. A few extras won't hurt to have around, and you could possibly sell the extras to pay for those you keep.
Somethings on My Mind
A few conversations I've been involved in recently have stirred me up a little. Enough so that I am feeling the need to step away form my format and rant a little. Forgive me, but sometimes you just have to stand up and shout I think.
So one of the conversations was about drugs and the failure of Ok. to make psudoephedrine prescription only. The logic being we need to force everyone to get a prescription for this, so the meth cooks can't make meth. This is of course failed logic. Anyone with any knowledge of history knows that prohibition simply doesn't work. What it does do is create a thriving criminal element that will step in to fill a market need. This criminal element is generally more dangerous than the thing you are trying to prohibit in the first place. Ever heard of Al Capone? How about the beheadings in Mexico? Gang violence? All the product of our war on drugs.
When a person points out these flaws the response is to try and tug the heart strings. Think about the children, mothers are dieing, children are suffering. It's here that I begin to lose my normally calm and collected self. While I can maintain my civility for a short period of time in these moments, it rapidly fades. You see, I grew up surrounded by drugs. My parents first were users, then dealers, then heavy users, then serving jail time. I was moved around a lot, went unfed, unclothed and generally ignored for much of my youth. By the time I was 14 I was no longer in school, instead working as a framing carpenter.
I went on to commit some criminal acts myself. I grew a small part time pot dealing enterprise into something pretty noteworthy. I've been shot at, shot, blown up, and beaten but that's a story for another time I think.
Even after all this I don't blame the drugs. It's the people that choose to use them that are to blame. That is for many people a hard thing to say to themselves. To blame themselves, or their sons and daughters, moms and dads, or anyone they love. It's a hard thing to do and I understand it, but it is true and in your heart of hearts you know it's true. More importantly, there is nothing you can do about it. You can reach out to them, you can tell them how much it hurts you to see them doing this to themselves, you can make it harder for them to get the drug they crave. At the end of the day, if they want it bad enough they will get it and you can't stop them.
This leads me back to my point about manipulating people with emotional pleas of think about the children. That a person will attempt to manipulate me by telling me about my own childhood? Go **** yourself is the first thing that comes to mind. Mild violence comes a close second.
So, instead of spending billions of dollars trying to protect people from themselves. Instead of throwing people in prison for having an addiction, why aren't we taxing the legal sale of drugs? Why not use the money from those taxes to help those that can be helped, those that WANT to be helped? It seems so common sense to me I don't understand why no one else sees it. The only reason I can think of is because the people trying to fight the war on drugs simply don't understand what they are fighting. You aren't fighting a drug, or an addiction, or some evil being unleashed upon the world. You are trying to fight human nature, and you simply can't win.
The other thing that has me stirred up is political. I'll make this one short as I don't really want to get into a lot of political banter here. I was told today that trying to fight the machine, trying to go against the will of those that 'choose' our candidates for us is fight that can't be won. This was in a chat about Ron Paul and the Maine caucus and voting in general.
To those of you that truly believe that I am ashamed for you. That a thing seems too large or too hard doesn't mean we should abandon the cause and quit. Sometimes you have to dig in, suck it up, and be a frigging man. Perhaps my youth made me hard, or gave me a different perspective. Perhaps the stories of the Frozen Chosin my great uncle told me as a child made me want to live up those ideals and be worthy of that history. I don't know, maybe it's just genetic and some of us are born with it.
There is no quitting. We never surrender.
So one of the conversations was about drugs and the failure of Ok. to make psudoephedrine prescription only. The logic being we need to force everyone to get a prescription for this, so the meth cooks can't make meth. This is of course failed logic. Anyone with any knowledge of history knows that prohibition simply doesn't work. What it does do is create a thriving criminal element that will step in to fill a market need. This criminal element is generally more dangerous than the thing you are trying to prohibit in the first place. Ever heard of Al Capone? How about the beheadings in Mexico? Gang violence? All the product of our war on drugs.
When a person points out these flaws the response is to try and tug the heart strings. Think about the children, mothers are dieing, children are suffering. It's here that I begin to lose my normally calm and collected self. While I can maintain my civility for a short period of time in these moments, it rapidly fades. You see, I grew up surrounded by drugs. My parents first were users, then dealers, then heavy users, then serving jail time. I was moved around a lot, went unfed, unclothed and generally ignored for much of my youth. By the time I was 14 I was no longer in school, instead working as a framing carpenter.
I went on to commit some criminal acts myself. I grew a small part time pot dealing enterprise into something pretty noteworthy. I've been shot at, shot, blown up, and beaten but that's a story for another time I think.
Even after all this I don't blame the drugs. It's the people that choose to use them that are to blame. That is for many people a hard thing to say to themselves. To blame themselves, or their sons and daughters, moms and dads, or anyone they love. It's a hard thing to do and I understand it, but it is true and in your heart of hearts you know it's true. More importantly, there is nothing you can do about it. You can reach out to them, you can tell them how much it hurts you to see them doing this to themselves, you can make it harder for them to get the drug they crave. At the end of the day, if they want it bad enough they will get it and you can't stop them.
This leads me back to my point about manipulating people with emotional pleas of think about the children. That a person will attempt to manipulate me by telling me about my own childhood? Go **** yourself is the first thing that comes to mind. Mild violence comes a close second.
So, instead of spending billions of dollars trying to protect people from themselves. Instead of throwing people in prison for having an addiction, why aren't we taxing the legal sale of drugs? Why not use the money from those taxes to help those that can be helped, those that WANT to be helped? It seems so common sense to me I don't understand why no one else sees it. The only reason I can think of is because the people trying to fight the war on drugs simply don't understand what they are fighting. You aren't fighting a drug, or an addiction, or some evil being unleashed upon the world. You are trying to fight human nature, and you simply can't win.
The other thing that has me stirred up is political. I'll make this one short as I don't really want to get into a lot of political banter here. I was told today that trying to fight the machine, trying to go against the will of those that 'choose' our candidates for us is fight that can't be won. This was in a chat about Ron Paul and the Maine caucus and voting in general.
To those of you that truly believe that I am ashamed for you. That a thing seems too large or too hard doesn't mean we should abandon the cause and quit. Sometimes you have to dig in, suck it up, and be a frigging man. Perhaps my youth made me hard, or gave me a different perspective. Perhaps the stories of the Frozen Chosin my great uncle told me as a child made me want to live up those ideals and be worthy of that history. I don't know, maybe it's just genetic and some of us are born with it.
There is no quitting. We never surrender.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
So you want to buy something besides gold huh?
In my last post I either riled you up and made you mad, or I made you really think about that PM purchase a little harder. Either way, at least I had an impact right? Isn't that what we're all trying to do; make an impact on the people and the world around us? Anyway, in this post I'll try an explore some other options for SHTF investing that are less a risk.
I'd also like to take a minute to give some perspective before I get into the nuts and bolts. To those that consider themselves preppers or to those that just like to be self reliant and ready for (almost) anything; What is preparing if not investing for the future? Unless you are 100% certain that the world is going to fall apart, society is going to Hell in a bucket, or an EMP will strike in your lifetime, why not invest in the future and prepare for disaster at the same time? Why not look at your preparations for SHTF and invest in the future as the same thing? Plan around both things happening and you will be much less wasteful.
Ok, back to the task at hand. Ways for the rest of us to inflation proof and gather some barter material. My first move would be to stop using cards to purchase things. I know it seems like a major pain to have the cash around to make purchases, but in all reality you should have some cash on hand anyway just in case. No matter what, money talks. More importantly though is change. When you use a debit card to make a purchase you don't get any change back. How are you going to slowly and steadily fill that jar with coins if you aren't getting change back? I was amazed at the amount of money I saved when I started using cash again.
When you start using cash and getting change back you would be well advised to periodically sort your change. I don't mean nickles, dimes, quarters, etc. Well, separate out the nickles yes, they are worth more in metal value than they are in face value. While it is (I believe) illegal to melt down coins for scrap value, there is no law against holding them for the future. If TSHTF those nickles suddenly become a more valuable commodity. The same applies to pre-1982 pennies. They have more copper in them than their face value. In fact, pre-'82 pennies are worth .025 cents. That's over doube face value! Don't believe me? Take a look here.
&re we've made one small change in the way we operate and it's paying pretty big dividends. By simply switching to cash you are collecting nickle, copper, and some silver. You're also setting money aside that was otherwise in the checking account. That $4-5 a week adds up. In a few short months you'll have a few extra bucks to invest in something with some real value to it like open pollinated (heirloom) seeds, or a hand crank flashlight (power failures do happen, and batteries always fail when you need them), or a small water purifier. Or if you're really really sneaky like me... rolls of nickles and pennies.
I'm going to slip in a little unsolicited plug here for My Patriot Supply where I suggest you purchase these items. No, I don't get anything for sending him traffic, if this tiny site even sends him any traffic.
Now most of the folks reading this should already have this stuff. I know most of you are from HT and Cheap Homesteading so if you are lacking in the above mentioned. For shame!
If you already have those bases covered don't worry, I have something even more mundane you can do with those extra couple of bucks you've set aside. Go to yard sales, flee markets, and other places you can find old used crap. There is a lot of value in old used crap so long as you buy the right old used crap. Some examples include old tools, bolts of fabric, cheap knock off clothes (oh I do love those knock off dealers even though I know it's so wrong), and my favorite... cast iron cookware!
My take on cast iron is pretty straight forward. Inflation is ever present, so buying something like cheap used cast iron today to clean up and sell later will work ok. If it's older cast iron it will be an antique sooner or later and worth more. If TSHTF people will NEED that cast iron. When they can't nuke up a hot pocket and eat some chips on the side they'll be forced to cook. It won't take long before those cheap Wal Mart non-stick pans turn into a warped mass of scrap. Cast Iron will be looking pretty good at that point, and you'll have it. The laws of supply and demand kick in then right? One silver eagle for a decent frying pan seems about right. Oh, we're investing in metal twice!
Another metal that should not be over looked is copper. Simple things like copper pipe are likely to gain in value I believe. Mind you, there is the possibility that demand for copper pipe disappears forever, or dries up enough to lower the price, but I'm thinking it's not likely. The beauty of copper pipe is you can store it on a wall in the basement or under the crawl space without seeming too odd. At some point in the future when you need some cash you simply put an ad on craiglslist or the like and beat the Lowe Depots price. Or, at some point in the future when a pipe bursts or you want to build a new barn with water, or... I really like the copper fittings by the way. Those damned things keep getting more and more expensive, and while I can salvage pipe I always have trouble getting the fittings off in good shape. Maybe you have better luck than me.
I've been asked before about PVC and PEX pipe. I'm not really sure I want to stock pile any of that stuff. While I'm sure the price is just as likely to increase as anything else, I like copper because I get double duty out of it. If for some reason I'm unable to sell the pipe as pipe but I REALLY need money, I can sell the copper as scrap. Yes, unless I've held it long enough I'm taking a loss. But in an emergency at least I'm sitting on something of value. Not so much with PVC.
Spools of wire are not bad either. They tend to be higher priced but they are also more in demand and of higher quality. I'm not sure about the price in the future though. If housing doesn't start back up, or at least some kind of construct find those deals anymore, but you can find a Mauser for a cool severl hundred bucks.
I personally find I'm partial to the old commie guns. SKS, AK, Mosin Nagant. All fine guns that do what they were designed to do, kill stuff every time you pull the trigger. They also tend to require less TLC which suits me very well. I like to shoot my guns but I don't really want to be a slave to maintaining them. More important to me though is they are priced better. A fella can get two AK's for the price of one AR-15. Even better, a fella can get 5 Mosins, a spam can of ammo, and sill have money left over for the price of an AR-15.
That means if TS does hit the fan and you're family and friends show up to be saved by you, you can arm them. While an old bolt gun isn't the ideal, when there are five of you firing big honkin rounds it'll be ok. LOL The investment side of this of course is that Mosins are cheap now like Mausers were back when. In ten or twenty years I do believe those old Mosins will be the new Mausers.
The last things I'll mention in detail are debt and yourself.
You should be working on owning your home, preferably a home with some land. It doesn't have to be a huge thousand acre tract, even one acre of paid for land is better than almost anything you can rent. Having your home paid for is worth more to me than anything else I could buy. The reality is that your SHTF moment isn't likely going to be the end of the world. It's going to be much more personal and the rest of the world can get bent during that time. Knowing that you own your home, knowing the bank won't be calling to foreclose, that's an investment that's hard to beat.
If you have credit card debt, a car note, or any debt really; you really have no business investing in metals or anything of the sort. You really need to go listen to Dave Ramsey and get that taken care of.
The most important advice of all though? Invest in yourself. You need to find a niche, your niche, and work it. Learn all about it and get good at it. Become a producer. Don't quit your job and run after some hair brained scheme, but learn a new skill, something that can and hopefully will earn you a living should the world fall apart. More importantly something you would like to do today. Don't wait for the end of the world to come to do what you want to do, go get it now! Do you like to bake? Do it on the side, sell some stuff at flee markets, farmers markets, whatever. Can you knit but live in the 'burbs? Raise a few angora rabbits and learn to spin the fiber. Use the waste to grow a garden, or sell it to others that garden. Hell, become a scrapper or a prospector, whatever it is you feel something about. Go out there on the weekends and do it, and learn how to make it profitable. The best place to invest money is in yourself. You will never find a better return, so long as you're willing to put in the effort. Just sayin.
I'd also like to take a minute to give some perspective before I get into the nuts and bolts. To those that consider themselves preppers or to those that just like to be self reliant and ready for (almost) anything; What is preparing if not investing for the future? Unless you are 100% certain that the world is going to fall apart, society is going to Hell in a bucket, or an EMP will strike in your lifetime, why not invest in the future and prepare for disaster at the same time? Why not look at your preparations for SHTF and invest in the future as the same thing? Plan around both things happening and you will be much less wasteful.
Ok, back to the task at hand. Ways for the rest of us to inflation proof and gather some barter material. My first move would be to stop using cards to purchase things. I know it seems like a major pain to have the cash around to make purchases, but in all reality you should have some cash on hand anyway just in case. No matter what, money talks. More importantly though is change. When you use a debit card to make a purchase you don't get any change back. How are you going to slowly and steadily fill that jar with coins if you aren't getting change back? I was amazed at the amount of money I saved when I started using cash again.
When you start using cash and getting change back you would be well advised to periodically sort your change. I don't mean nickles, dimes, quarters, etc. Well, separate out the nickles yes, they are worth more in metal value than they are in face value. While it is (I believe) illegal to melt down coins for scrap value, there is no law against holding them for the future. If TSHTF those nickles suddenly become a more valuable commodity. The same applies to pre-1982 pennies. They have more copper in them than their face value. In fact, pre-'82 pennies are worth .025 cents. That's over doube face value! Don't believe me? Take a look here.
&re we've made one small change in the way we operate and it's paying pretty big dividends. By simply switching to cash you are collecting nickle, copper, and some silver. You're also setting money aside that was otherwise in the checking account. That $4-5 a week adds up. In a few short months you'll have a few extra bucks to invest in something with some real value to it like open pollinated (heirloom) seeds, or a hand crank flashlight (power failures do happen, and batteries always fail when you need them), or a small water purifier. Or if you're really really sneaky like me... rolls of nickles and pennies.
I'm going to slip in a little unsolicited plug here for My Patriot Supply where I suggest you purchase these items. No, I don't get anything for sending him traffic, if this tiny site even sends him any traffic.
Now most of the folks reading this should already have this stuff. I know most of you are from HT and Cheap Homesteading so if you are lacking in the above mentioned. For shame!
If you already have those bases covered don't worry, I have something even more mundane you can do with those extra couple of bucks you've set aside. Go to yard sales, flee markets, and other places you can find old used crap. There is a lot of value in old used crap so long as you buy the right old used crap. Some examples include old tools, bolts of fabric, cheap knock off clothes (oh I do love those knock off dealers even though I know it's so wrong), and my favorite... cast iron cookware!
My take on cast iron is pretty straight forward. Inflation is ever present, so buying something like cheap used cast iron today to clean up and sell later will work ok. If it's older cast iron it will be an antique sooner or later and worth more. If TSHTF people will NEED that cast iron. When they can't nuke up a hot pocket and eat some chips on the side they'll be forced to cook. It won't take long before those cheap Wal Mart non-stick pans turn into a warped mass of scrap. Cast Iron will be looking pretty good at that point, and you'll have it. The laws of supply and demand kick in then right? One silver eagle for a decent frying pan seems about right. Oh, we're investing in metal twice!
Another metal that should not be over looked is copper. Simple things like copper pipe are likely to gain in value I believe. Mind you, there is the possibility that demand for copper pipe disappears forever, or dries up enough to lower the price, but I'm thinking it's not likely. The beauty of copper pipe is you can store it on a wall in the basement or under the crawl space without seeming too odd. At some point in the future when you need some cash you simply put an ad on craiglslist or the like and beat the Lowe Depots price. Or, at some point in the future when a pipe bursts or you want to build a new barn with water, or... I really like the copper fittings by the way. Those damned things keep getting more and more expensive, and while I can salvage pipe I always have trouble getting the fittings off in good shape. Maybe you have better luck than me.
I've been asked before about PVC and PEX pipe. I'm not really sure I want to stock pile any of that stuff. While I'm sure the price is just as likely to increase as anything else, I like copper because I get double duty out of it. If for some reason I'm unable to sell the pipe as pipe but I REALLY need money, I can sell the copper as scrap. Yes, unless I've held it long enough I'm taking a loss. But in an emergency at least I'm sitting on something of value. Not so much with PVC.
Spools of wire are not bad either. They tend to be higher priced but they are also more in demand and of higher quality. I'm not sure about the price in the future though. If housing doesn't start back up, or at least some kind of construct find those deals anymore, but you can find a Mauser for a cool severl hundred bucks.
I personally find I'm partial to the old commie guns. SKS, AK, Mosin Nagant. All fine guns that do what they were designed to do, kill stuff every time you pull the trigger. They also tend to require less TLC which suits me very well. I like to shoot my guns but I don't really want to be a slave to maintaining them. More important to me though is they are priced better. A fella can get two AK's for the price of one AR-15. Even better, a fella can get 5 Mosins, a spam can of ammo, and sill have money left over for the price of an AR-15.
That means if TS does hit the fan and you're family and friends show up to be saved by you, you can arm them. While an old bolt gun isn't the ideal, when there are five of you firing big honkin rounds it'll be ok. LOL The investment side of this of course is that Mosins are cheap now like Mausers were back when. In ten or twenty years I do believe those old Mosins will be the new Mausers.
The last things I'll mention in detail are debt and yourself.
You should be working on owning your home, preferably a home with some land. It doesn't have to be a huge thousand acre tract, even one acre of paid for land is better than almost anything you can rent. Having your home paid for is worth more to me than anything else I could buy. The reality is that your SHTF moment isn't likely going to be the end of the world. It's going to be much more personal and the rest of the world can get bent during that time. Knowing that you own your home, knowing the bank won't be calling to foreclose, that's an investment that's hard to beat.
If you have credit card debt, a car note, or any debt really; you really have no business investing in metals or anything of the sort. You really need to go listen to Dave Ramsey and get that taken care of.
The most important advice of all though? Invest in yourself. You need to find a niche, your niche, and work it. Learn all about it and get good at it. Become a producer. Don't quit your job and run after some hair brained scheme, but learn a new skill, something that can and hopefully will earn you a living should the world fall apart. More importantly something you would like to do today. Don't wait for the end of the world to come to do what you want to do, go get it now! Do you like to bake? Do it on the side, sell some stuff at flee markets, farmers markets, whatever. Can you knit but live in the 'burbs? Raise a few angora rabbits and learn to spin the fiber. Use the waste to grow a garden, or sell it to others that garden. Hell, become a scrapper or a prospector, whatever it is you feel something about. Go out there on the weekends and do it, and learn how to make it profitable. The best place to invest money is in yourself. You will never find a better return, so long as you're willing to put in the effort. Just sayin.
Monday, February 13, 2012
So you wanna buy some gold huh?
So you are pretty well prepped up and you're looking for other areas to put some of your resources. Of course the conventional wisdom today says to buy gold and silver. You've read all the reports about inflation, Ben Bernankie even said he intends to devalue the dollar 33% more, and you have found a good source to purchase from. You're all set, you don't need any advice now right? Wrong.
I'd ask myself a few important questions first. Most important is do I have 6 figures to drop on gold? Being as you're reading my little hole in the wall blog I'll venture a guess and say no. Next question is are you buying physical gold that you will store yourself? If not physical, you aren't investing in gold you're gambling with paper and nothing more. If you are buying physical you need to make sure you aren't paying too much over spot. Of course the less you buy the more you pay, if you have the required 6 figures to invest in gold you'll likely be fine there.
I know the question burning in your mind. Well, I have an idea anyway. Why would I need 100k or more to invest in gold? The simple answer is margin. If you're only buying a few ounces here and there you are over paying by a long ways. If you are buying the right gold (more on that later) you're paying well over spot on an ounce anyway, but by taking little bites at a time you're just making the dealers mortgage note for him. This is why so many of these guys are so very very VERY happy to see you asking for that American Eagle. He's bought his gold in bulk and is making a hella markup selling to you. He is investing, you are consuming. While on a long enough time line you could, and likely will, make a profit. If you need this gold in the next 5 years you're likely losing money.
If you can't invest 6 figures in gold today,and afford to let it sit for a few years, you simply can't afford to invest in gold safely. Gold bugs be damned, that's just how I see it. Gold is for the big boys, if you aren't one of them stay out of the damned way.
Well you say, silver is more my style anyway. Slow down there big guy (or gal), lets take a minute and look at silver as well. The first thing we need to make sure of is you are investing in the right silver. Bars of gold and silver are nice, and they are closer to spot price as well. But the problem is who is going to take that from you as a trade when it comes time to sell or trade? Not me, unless you're coming to me with a serious amount and we're making a rather large and not immediate transaction. I'm going to want to have that metal block assayed. If it's a small amount I'm not going to be interested personally because, well, it's not worth the time and money to have it assayed.
I know, I know. Bullion just sounds so sexy doesn't it? They steal it in the movies, banks and the rich are holding large amounts of Bullion, say it with a Spanish accent with me, bullllion. Oh yeah, sooo sexy. So is a Ferrari, get over it.
So the right silver or any PM really is in coin form and from a trusted source. As I'm assuming you are in North America like me, that leaves us with the good ol' USA and Canada. If someone came to me wanting to trade metal for goods, and said metal didn't have a big ol' maple leaf or Lady Liberty on it I ain't interested. No thanks, not worth the risk. The obvious exception would be older US currency with high silver content. While I wouldn't personally invest in those mixed bags today due to markup, I would take the coins as trade. They'll be nice to make change with later, and will be good for smaller purchases at some point I'd bet. But we aren't making change here, we're prepping right?
So you're going to run out and buy some silver eagles. Whooaa there, slow down. You need to remember that you make your profit when you buy, not when you sell. Knowing this is the difference between that coin dealer that drools when he sees you walk in, and you! Remember the markup, the less you buy the more you pay.
I suggest you save up and buy AT MINIMUM a roll of eagles. That's 20 coins at a time. Don't buy collector coins or graded coins either, that's useless for our purposes. If you are buying them you are buying collectibles and should know a lot more about coinage than I ever will. What we're looking for is metal money with a stable base value. While paper will go up and down that metal will remain the same. If by the way, this doesn't make sense to you... Don't buy metal as an investment. You have a little research to do.
Now, I suggested you buy at minimum a roll of eagles and I meant it. But that would assume you had no PMs at all, limited space to store anything at all, enough food and such stored up to hold me through a serious shortage, no way to grow a garden, and all the other things that I purchase to get by, bought in triple or more. Basically enough to hold me over for a year or so. Why? Because I'll make more money buying things I need now than I will buying small amounts of silver and trading them for the very SAME THINGS later. No guaranty of that, but odds are... Even then I'm not 100% sure a roll is a large enough purchase to be worth it.
For me personally I wouldn't buy less than a box, or a Monster Box. That's 500 coins in one box. They are not cheap these days. When I bought my silver boxes were around 4-5k each. I looked at Apmex (you can find cheaper) and they were over 18k each. I know what you're thinking. Invalid man, do you eat garbage and piss gasoline or something? How can you afford 18k to just stuff under the bed. Honest answer? I can't, which is why I'm not buying silver. I know when I'm priced out of a market and I don't try and pick my way in. That's how the guys still in the market make money, selling little chips to people that pay too much.
So my honest advice, which isn't investment advice because that's a big legal PITA, is don't buy silver unless you are well supplied and have a lot of extra cash on hand. Another thing to consider is debt. If you have debt, you're better off paying it down than investing in PMs. Even low interest debt should be worked on before taking on any major financial prepping in my opinion.
So I've maybe discouraged you from preparing for the future a little. Don't despair though, there are some decent ways I think the average prep minded person can put something inflation proof aside and come out ahead. I'll get that started tomorrow or, if I have a little insomnia, later tonight.
Now to my disclaimer. While the above may seem like investment advice it isn't. It's how I view the world and markets and is purely for your enjoyment. It is, to me, more related to being prepared for what looks like may be a nice sized financial mess. If you try to emulate my style and it blows up in your face, I hope you feel better knowing it's blown up in my face too. Most importantly you should remember that I'm just another jackass on the net so consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. Just sayin.
I'd ask myself a few important questions first. Most important is do I have 6 figures to drop on gold? Being as you're reading my little hole in the wall blog I'll venture a guess and say no. Next question is are you buying physical gold that you will store yourself? If not physical, you aren't investing in gold you're gambling with paper and nothing more. If you are buying physical you need to make sure you aren't paying too much over spot. Of course the less you buy the more you pay, if you have the required 6 figures to invest in gold you'll likely be fine there.
I know the question burning in your mind. Well, I have an idea anyway. Why would I need 100k or more to invest in gold? The simple answer is margin. If you're only buying a few ounces here and there you are over paying by a long ways. If you are buying the right gold (more on that later) you're paying well over spot on an ounce anyway, but by taking little bites at a time you're just making the dealers mortgage note for him. This is why so many of these guys are so very very VERY happy to see you asking for that American Eagle. He's bought his gold in bulk and is making a hella markup selling to you. He is investing, you are consuming. While on a long enough time line you could, and likely will, make a profit. If you need this gold in the next 5 years you're likely losing money.
If you can't invest 6 figures in gold today,and afford to let it sit for a few years, you simply can't afford to invest in gold safely. Gold bugs be damned, that's just how I see it. Gold is for the big boys, if you aren't one of them stay out of the damned way.
Well you say, silver is more my style anyway. Slow down there big guy (or gal), lets take a minute and look at silver as well. The first thing we need to make sure of is you are investing in the right silver. Bars of gold and silver are nice, and they are closer to spot price as well. But the problem is who is going to take that from you as a trade when it comes time to sell or trade? Not me, unless you're coming to me with a serious amount and we're making a rather large and not immediate transaction. I'm going to want to have that metal block assayed. If it's a small amount I'm not going to be interested personally because, well, it's not worth the time and money to have it assayed.
I know, I know. Bullion just sounds so sexy doesn't it? They steal it in the movies, banks and the rich are holding large amounts of Bullion, say it with a Spanish accent with me, bullllion. Oh yeah, sooo sexy. So is a Ferrari, get over it.
So the right silver or any PM really is in coin form and from a trusted source. As I'm assuming you are in North America like me, that leaves us with the good ol' USA and Canada. If someone came to me wanting to trade metal for goods, and said metal didn't have a big ol' maple leaf or Lady Liberty on it I ain't interested. No thanks, not worth the risk. The obvious exception would be older US currency with high silver content. While I wouldn't personally invest in those mixed bags today due to markup, I would take the coins as trade. They'll be nice to make change with later, and will be good for smaller purchases at some point I'd bet. But we aren't making change here, we're prepping right?
So you're going to run out and buy some silver eagles. Whooaa there, slow down. You need to remember that you make your profit when you buy, not when you sell. Knowing this is the difference between that coin dealer that drools when he sees you walk in, and you! Remember the markup, the less you buy the more you pay.
I suggest you save up and buy AT MINIMUM a roll of eagles. That's 20 coins at a time. Don't buy collector coins or graded coins either, that's useless for our purposes. If you are buying them you are buying collectibles and should know a lot more about coinage than I ever will. What we're looking for is metal money with a stable base value. While paper will go up and down that metal will remain the same. If by the way, this doesn't make sense to you... Don't buy metal as an investment. You have a little research to do.
Now, I suggested you buy at minimum a roll of eagles and I meant it. But that would assume you had no PMs at all, limited space to store anything at all, enough food and such stored up to hold me through a serious shortage, no way to grow a garden, and all the other things that I purchase to get by, bought in triple or more. Basically enough to hold me over for a year or so. Why? Because I'll make more money buying things I need now than I will buying small amounts of silver and trading them for the very SAME THINGS later. No guaranty of that, but odds are... Even then I'm not 100% sure a roll is a large enough purchase to be worth it.
For me personally I wouldn't buy less than a box, or a Monster Box. That's 500 coins in one box. They are not cheap these days. When I bought my silver boxes were around 4-5k each. I looked at Apmex (you can find cheaper) and they were over 18k each. I know what you're thinking. Invalid man, do you eat garbage and piss gasoline or something? How can you afford 18k to just stuff under the bed. Honest answer? I can't, which is why I'm not buying silver. I know when I'm priced out of a market and I don't try and pick my way in. That's how the guys still in the market make money, selling little chips to people that pay too much.
So my honest advice, which isn't investment advice because that's a big legal PITA, is don't buy silver unless you are well supplied and have a lot of extra cash on hand. Another thing to consider is debt. If you have debt, you're better off paying it down than investing in PMs. Even low interest debt should be worked on before taking on any major financial prepping in my opinion.
So I've maybe discouraged you from preparing for the future a little. Don't despair though, there are some decent ways I think the average prep minded person can put something inflation proof aside and come out ahead. I'll get that started tomorrow or, if I have a little insomnia, later tonight.
Now to my disclaimer. While the above may seem like investment advice it isn't. It's how I view the world and markets and is purely for your enjoyment. It is, to me, more related to being prepared for what looks like may be a nice sized financial mess. If you try to emulate my style and it blows up in your face, I hope you feel better knowing it's blown up in my face too. Most importantly you should remember that I'm just another jackass on the net so consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. Just sayin.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
This is a test
I'm mostly just trying out this blog thing, seeing how it works and such. I'm intending to borrow some ideas on blogging from some of the folks over at Homesteadingtoday.com You can find them over there as DeaconJim and Ernie.
For now I'll mostly be playing with the layouts and learning the various functions, so I don't really consider this a live blog yet. Eventually I may post my more contentious thoughts here instead of on the forum I frequent. This will, I think, give me a little more control over my own content, and allow me the security of knowing that if someone isn't happy with something I say the content will remain just the same.
The problem with a web forum is trolls and dissent. While I do enjoy a good dissenter, it does become a problem when they simply shout you down or out right lie to discredit the message you're trying to relay. Troll are, well just idiots with nothing better to do than talk shit.
Oh yeah, part of the control of content means I can swear again. I do tend to do that, you've been warned.
For now I'll mostly be playing with the layouts and learning the various functions, so I don't really consider this a live blog yet. Eventually I may post my more contentious thoughts here instead of on the forum I frequent. This will, I think, give me a little more control over my own content, and allow me the security of knowing that if someone isn't happy with something I say the content will remain just the same.
The problem with a web forum is trolls and dissent. While I do enjoy a good dissenter, it does become a problem when they simply shout you down or out right lie to discredit the message you're trying to relay. Troll are, well just idiots with nothing better to do than talk shit.
Oh yeah, part of the control of content means I can swear again. I do tend to do that, you've been warned.
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