Monday, February 13, 2012

So you wanna buy some gold huh?

 So you are pretty well prepped up and you're looking for other areas to put some of your resources. Of course the conventional wisdom today says to buy gold and silver. You've read all the reports about inflation, Ben Bernankie even said he intends to devalue the dollar 33% more, and you have found a good source to purchase from. You're all set, you don't need any advice now right? Wrong.

 I'd ask myself a few important questions first. Most important is do I have 6 figures to drop on gold? Being as you're reading my little hole in the wall blog I'll venture a guess and say no. Next question is are you buying physical gold that you will store yourself? If not physical, you aren't investing in gold you're gambling with paper and nothing more. If you are buying physical you need to make sure you aren't paying too much over spot. Of course the less you buy the more you pay, if you have the required 6 figures to invest in gold you'll likely be fine there.

 I know the question burning in your mind. Well, I have an idea anyway. Why would I need 100k or more to invest in gold? The simple answer is margin. If you're only buying a few ounces here and there you are over paying by a long ways. If you are buying the right gold (more on that later) you're paying well over spot on an ounce anyway, but by taking little bites at a time you're just making the dealers mortgage note for him. This is why so many of these guys are so very very VERY happy to see you asking for that American Eagle. He's bought his gold in bulk and is making a hella markup selling to you. He is investing, you are consuming. While on a long enough time line you could, and likely will, make a profit. If you need this gold in the next 5 years you're likely losing money.

 If you can't invest 6 figures in gold today,and afford to let it sit for a few years, you simply can't afford to invest in gold safely. Gold bugs be damned, that's just how I see it. Gold is for the big boys, if you aren't one of them stay out of the damned way.

 Well you say, silver is more my style anyway. Slow down there big guy (or gal), lets take a minute and look at silver as well. The first thing we need to make sure of is you are investing in the right silver. Bars of gold and silver are nice, and they are closer to spot price as well. But the problem is who is going to take that from you as a trade when it comes time to sell or trade? Not me, unless you're coming to me with a serious amount and we're making a rather large and not immediate transaction. I'm going to want to have that metal block assayed. If it's a small amount I'm not going to be interested personally because, well, it's not worth the time and money to have it assayed.

I know, I know. Bullion just sounds so sexy doesn't it? They steal it in the movies, banks and the rich are holding large amounts of Bullion, say it with a Spanish accent with me, bullllion. Oh yeah, sooo sexy. So is a Ferrari, get over it.

 So the right silver or any PM really is in coin form and from a trusted source. As I'm assuming you are in North America like me, that leaves us with the good ol' USA and Canada. If someone came to me wanting to trade metal for goods, and said metal didn't have a big ol' maple leaf or Lady Liberty on it I ain't interested. No thanks, not worth the risk. The obvious exception would be older US currency with high silver content. While I wouldn't personally invest in those mixed bags today due to markup, I would take the coins as trade. They'll be nice to make change with later, and will be good for smaller purchases at some point I'd bet. But we aren't making change here, we're prepping right?

 So you're going to run out and buy some silver eagles. Whooaa there, slow down. You need to remember that you make your profit when you buy, not when you sell. Knowing this is the difference between that coin dealer that drools when he sees you walk in, and you! Remember the markup, the less you buy the more you pay.

 I suggest you save up and buy AT MINIMUM a roll of eagles. That's 20 coins at a time. Don't buy collector coins or graded coins either, that's useless for our purposes. If you are buying them you are buying collectibles and should know a lot more about coinage than I ever will. What we're looking for is metal money with a stable base value. While paper will go up and down that metal will remain the same. If by the way, this doesn't make sense to you... Don't buy metal as an investment. You have a little research to do.

 Now, I suggested you buy at minimum a roll of eagles and I meant it. But that would assume you had no PMs at all, limited space to store anything at all, enough food and such stored up to hold me through a serious shortage, no way to grow a garden, and all the other things that I purchase to get by, bought in triple or more. Basically enough to hold me over for a year or so. Why? Because I'll make more money buying things I need now than I will buying small amounts of silver and trading them for the very SAME THINGS later. No guaranty of that, but odds are... Even then I'm not 100% sure a roll is a large enough purchase to be worth it.

 For me personally I wouldn't buy less than a box, or a Monster Box. That's 500 coins in one box. They are not cheap these days. When I bought my silver boxes were around 4-5k each. I looked at Apmex (you can find cheaper) and they were over 18k each. I know what you're thinking. Invalid man, do you eat garbage and piss gasoline or something? How can you afford 18k to just stuff under the bed. Honest answer? I can't, which is why I'm not buying silver. I know when I'm priced out of a market and I don't try and pick my way in. That's how the guys still in the market make money, selling little chips to people that pay too much.

 So my honest advice, which isn't investment advice because that's a big legal PITA, is don't buy silver unless you are well supplied and have a lot of extra cash on hand. Another thing to consider is debt. If you have debt, you're better off paying it down than investing in PMs. Even low interest debt should be worked on before taking on any major financial prepping in my opinion.

  So I've maybe discouraged you from preparing for the future a little. Don't despair though, there are some decent ways I think the average prep minded person can put something inflation proof aside and come out ahead. I'll get that started tomorrow or, if I have a little insomnia, later tonight.


 Now to my disclaimer. While the above may seem like investment advice it isn't. It's how I view the world and markets and is purely for your enjoyment. It is, to me, more related to being prepared for what looks like may be a nice sized financial mess. If you try to emulate my style and it blows up in your face, I hope you feel better knowing it's blown up in my face too. Most importantly you should remember that I'm just another jackass on the net so consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. Just sayin.

5 comments:

  1. Good stuff. Looking forward to more.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Interesting point and I mostly agree. However, consider this.. all other things being a non issue (preps, debt etc.), from a long term value stand point... is it better to put $500 a month into a savings account, cash in the mattress etc., or convert that $500 to silver or other pm's? Personally, I think over the long haul the pm's will have more value.. in a shtf scenario I admit the coin may or may not be useful, but then FRN's will definately be useless kindling. I consider it "hedging" (Haha) my bet.. will $10K of pm (mostly silver) be worth more in say 10 years than $10K in FRN's would be sitting in a bank?

    For those worried about me trying to eat my silver... food and other preps continue to be stored, just considering the cash scenario because I also agree that goods bought now will have waay more value in the future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. While I certainly agree that silver will hold more value than cash, I still can't suggest buying in quantities smaller than a full roll. For me being a retail investor is a suckers game. I'm not willing to pay that kind of mark up is all. If I was looking for somewhere to put $500 a month I would hold cash for 2 months and buy rolls every other month if I was determined to buy more silver.

      However, being as you have 10k in silver already I might start looking to diversify some. Things like copper and aluminum are good bets. Even scrap copper is a decent hedge if you know how to buy it. I'm going to address that in a near future post.

      Delete
    2. With prices having dipped in December it was OK to buy silver (sub $30), at what it is right now, no, not buying any silver. I've already started investigating copper but need to look into the viability and cost of wire spools as opposed to bars/coins. Thoughts on that are most welcome.

      Delete
    3. I did manage to mention wire and pipe in the follow up to this article. http://iidsideas.blogspot.com/2012/02/so-you-want-to-buy-something-besides.html

      I'm working on another with some tips for collecting scrap gold and other metals, but without having to do the dirty work. I've gotten some pretty interesting ideas from folks that read this post as well.

      Give me a day or two and I'll get it posted. :D

      Delete